THE OXFORD GUIDE TO FINANCIAL MODELING PDF
The essential premise of this book is that theory and practice are equally important in describing financial modeling. In it the authors try to strike a balance in their. The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling: Applications for Capital Markets, Corporate Finance, Risk Management, and Financial Institutions (a review). 6 days ago The Oxford Guide To Financial Modeling Applications For Capital Institutions [ PDF] [EPUB] Corporate finance is an area of finance that deals.
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If the address matches an existing account you will receive an email with instructions to retrieve your username. Skip to Main Content. Financial Modelling in Practice: Michael Rees. First published: Print ISBN: About this book Financial Modelling in Practice: A Concise Guide for Intermediate and Advanced Level is a practical, comprehensive and in-depth guide to financial modelling designed to cover the modelling issues that are relevant to facilitate the construction of robust and readily understandable models.
Since Michael has worked independently as a consultant and trainer in financial modelling. Prior to this he worked as a strategy consultant with Braxton Associates and Mercer Management Consulting, and also as an analyst at J. So how would you go about this?
For a deep dive we would recommend to have a look at our earlier article on how to create a killer sales forecast for your startup , but we will present the key takeaways below. Forecasting revenues is typically performed using a combination of the top down TAM SAM SOM model and bottom up methods which have been discussed earlier in this article. Use the bottom up method for your short term sales forecast years ahead and the top down method for the longer term years ahead. This makes you able to substantiate your short term targets on a detailed level, while at the same time your long term targets demonstrate the desired market share and the ambition an investor is looking for.
If you find it difficult estimating demand at all one way of tackling this is to perform keyword research. Keyword tools give you insights in the search volumes for keywords that relate to your offering.
They can show you per city, country, continent whatever you want how much monthly searches are performed for that specific keyword on the internet. This can give you a good indication on demand for certain offerings, compared across different countries.
You could try for instance the keyword tool Ubersuggest. Now you know the approaches to forecasting, this is how you actually put your forecast down on paper: List all the products or services that you are selling.
Determine in which units you want to present your sales: for a soda producer, this could for instance be bottles sold, but also liters sold.
Forecast per sales unit the number of units sold. This is based on the top down and bottom up analysis you have performed above. Add selling prices. Check out our article on new product pricing strategies if you want to learn more on how to determine pricing. You could for instance end up with something that looks like this if you would prepare the forecast in Excel: Revenue forecast example in Excel source: EY, The way in which you build up your revenue forecast depends a bit on your business model.
The example above for instance is an example of a company that sells per unit.
However, for a SaaS business it is better to prepare a revenue forecast based on existing customers, new customers and the churn rate. You can look for a financial modeling template for specific companies or business models on the web. Our financial planning software for startups also includes the usage of different business models to build up your revenue forecast.
Without these costs, the product or service would simply not exist. COGS differ based on the type of offering you sell. For a company that sells tangible products they would include for instance the costs of the materials used in creating the good. For a company that sells consultancy hours they would include the personnel costs of the employees delivering the service.
However, also SaaS companies definitely incur COGS, such as hosting costs, customer support and onboarding costs, and online payment costs. From these examples you can notice that all of these costs have to be incurred in order to produce the good or deliver the service. Not sure how to forecast COGS?
One way of tackling this, is by looking at the sales targets defined in your revenue forecast. From creating the revenue projections you know already how many units of sales you aim to have. You then add per unit of sales the costs of raw materials and labor costs involved in producing those goods. Example: if you sell plastic bottles, you could calculate how much plastic in grams you need per bottle and what would be the price of a kilogram of plastic.
Moreover, you need to know how much paper label you need per bottle and what is the price of that.
Also, you need to know the costs of the cap. If you know all of these costs required to produce one bottle you can multiply them by the total number of bottles sold. Finally you add the personnel costs for employees that are involved in production. If you would prepare this in Excel it would probably look something like this: Cost of goods sold forecast example in Excel source: EY, 3. Operating expenses OPEX Operating expenses are those expenses that a business incurs as a result of performing its normal business operations.
Unlike the cost of goods sold, they are not necessarily needed to produce the goods that are sold or to deliver the services promised. They include costs related to the supporting and operational side of business, such as sales and marketing, research and development and general and administrative tasks. Typical operating expenses for startups include: events, travelling, legal costs, online marketing, payroll costs of employees not part of COGS , accounting, rent, utilities, insurance, prototyping, patent costs, IT costs, office supplies, promotional materials, etc.
If you are not sure about which expenses you might incur in the long term, you could always save a certain percentage of your revenues for the different expense categories. Most important is that your spending on operating expenses aligns with your company strategy.
Is the growth of your company heavily reliant on online marketing? Then you would expect significant spending on that category. An example of what an operating expenses forecast could look like for instance for spending on sales and marketing, can be found below.
Operating expenses forecast example in Excel source: EY, 4. Personnel Personnel is probably one of the easier forecasts to build. With your personnel forecast you project the number of employees hired including their respective salaries, additional benefits and payroll taxes.
You could split up your personnel into four different categories: Direct labor: here you include the employees that will be solely engaged with the production of the goods sold or services delivered.
Think of engineers and technicians for companies selling tangible hardware products, a junior advisor in a consultancy company, or customer onboarding personnel in a SaaS business. These costs are not part of operating expenses but are part of the cost of goods sold. Sales and marketing: for instance sales managers, marketing managers, copywriters, social media experts, etc.
These employees are part of your operating expenses. An example of what a personnel forecast could look like, for instance for personnel working on sales and marketing, can be found below. This tells you how much revenue you expect to generate per employee and provides a solid basis for comparison with competitors and industry leaders. When your revenue per employee is at a similar level compared to the top twenty tech companies see the graph below already in just a few years after your launch, this is a strong indicator that you might be too optimistic regarding your expected revenues or that you might invest insufficiently in personnel.
Capital expenditures are funds used by a company to acquire or upgrade physical assets such as physical property, intellectual property, buildings or equipment. This type of expense is made by companies to maintain or increase the scope of their operations. They can include everything from repairing a roof to building a brand new factory. Typical capital expenditures depend on the type of business and industry.
For startups it is quite common to invest in computers, software, office equipment and machinery, but buying a building would also apply as a capital expenditure.
Many startups are incentivized to categorize their expenses as capital expenditures instead of as operating expenses. This means they have a less visible reducing impact on profits. In this sheet you would add financing streams such as equity, loans or subsidies. The main goal of this would be to check the impact on your funding need when you add different types of funding in different years of the model.
When a model includes the possibility to input loans, it needs to account for the loan repayment and interest payments, as these have an impact on cash flows. Loan input and repayment scheme example in Excel source: EY, The six different input sheets that are discussed above are all in some way linked to the outputs of the financial model.
For the financial statements specifically the links are as follows: Revenues impact the top line of the profit and loss statement. EBIT serves as input for the operational cash flow in the cash flow statement.
The ultimate guide to financial modeling for startups
Revenues even impact the balance sheet as they define the accounts receivable position. Cost of goods sold also turns up in the profit and loss statement.
Deducting them from the revenues results in the gross margin. The gross margin can also be presented as a percentage: the higher this percentage is, the more revenue is left for covering costs that are not directly related to production.
Cost of goods sold also impacts the balance sheet as they define accounts payable and inventory. Operating expenses show up in the profit and loss statement as well.
Deducting operating expenses and cost of goods sold from the revenues results in EBITDA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Personnel typically does not show up as a separate item in any of the financial statements as it is already covered by cost of goods sold and operating expenses. Personnel involved in delivering services or producing goods end up in cost of goods sold.
All other personnel is part of operating expenses. Investments in assets capital expenditures do not show up in the profit and loss statement because, accounting-wise, they are not seen as costs or expenses.
They are investments and can be capitalized, meaning their value typically lasts for several years. Therefore, they show up as something your company owns in the assets side of the balance sheet. Their value is depreciated reduced in value over their lifetime which is shown as depreciation in the profit and loss statement. Even though investments do not show up as a cost or expense, investing in something does mean there is a cash outflow for your company you have to pay, right?
Therefore investments also show up in the cash flow statement as investment cash flow. Financing impacts the financial statements in two ways. Firstly, new financing and changes in debt shows up in the cash flow statement as financing cash flow.
Secondly, interest paid on debts end up in the profit and loss statement as well. The financial statements themselves are also interrelated see image below. For that reason it is very important to have an experienced person supporting you building your model if you do not have this experience yourself, especially if you are looking for a more complex model including supporting schemes such as the ones mentioned in the next section.
Interdependencies in the financial statements source: EY, If you do not want to worry about all the calculations and the interdependencies in a financial model, you could try out our financial planning software for startups , in which all of these are covered by the tool.
Supporting schemes such as working capital, depreciation and taxes might be needed. Moreover, when you build a financial model you automatically structure a whole lot of data which you can also use for other purposes, such as a company valuation. Working capital Working capital is the capital that you need in order to sustain your daily operations. Technically speaking working capital is a comparison of the value of your current assets compared to your current liabilities.
In other words: the value of the things your company owns and that can be converted to cash on the short term in less than one year compared to the value of the things your company owes to others that are due on the short term less than one year as well. Current assets include cash, accounts receivable and inventory. Current liabilities for instance include accounts payable.Also included are recommendations regarding how to manage specific course assignments.
London: Springer Finance. If you have negative results this basically means you have expenses that exceed revenues more costs than income leading to an operating loss.
The ultimate guide to financial modeling for startups Wout Bobbink, 7 December We have three very easy questions for you: Do you want to build a financially sustainable business? Nor is the political divide as unbridgeable as it appears.
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